TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Monteiro vs P. Herbert (Gstaad on 2026-07-11) — the market is efficient, with T. Monteiro favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Monteiro | P. Herbert |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
70.5% | 29.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
56.5% | 43.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
87.9% | 12.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
70.5% | 29.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.8% | 39.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Monteiro | clay | 1680 | 163–107 | 270 |
| P. Herbert | hard | 1650 | 85–71 | 156 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
T. Monteiro leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 11, 2026 | Gstaad | clay | T. Monteiro | 2 - 1 |
| L | T. Gentzsch | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | T. Compagnucci | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | I. Gakhov | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | V. Gaubas | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Pellegrino | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | S. Kopp | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | T. Monteiro | 2 - 1 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | P. Jubb | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Landaluce | 1 - 2 | June 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Alkaya | 0 - 2 | June 7, 2026 |
All July 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used