TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Maria vs I. Jovic (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with I. Jovic favoured at 1.30.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Maria | I. Jovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.0% | 58.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
38.7% | 61.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
64.3% | 35.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.9% | 57.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.4% | 70.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
I. Jovic leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | I. Jovic | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | J. Cristian | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Raducanu | 2 - 0 | June 13, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: T. Maria vs I. Jovic — Wimbledon 1/32, grass, 2026-07-01 MODELS: ELO A 0.420 | ML A 0.387 | model A 0.429 | market impl A 0.294 (odds A 3.12 / B 1.30). Bot: BET 2.5u Maria, edge +13.5%. Models favor MARIA; market heavily favors JOVIC. FORM — MARIA (A), most-recent-first: L 06-29 vs Putintseva (1581 Avg) 4-6 4-6 — Wimbledon L 06-27 EASTBOURNE FINAL vs Keys (1866 Elite) 5-7 4-6 W 06-26 vs Ostapenko (1774 Strong) 6-1 1-2 ret W 06-25 vs Valentova (1614 Avg) 6-3 7-5 GRIND W 06-24 vs Zakharova (1702 Strong) 6-2 6-1 DOM W 06-23 vs Paolini (1760 Strong) 6-4 6-3 DOM Great Eastbourne run to the final, but last 2 results are LOSSES. FORM — JOVIC (B): W 06-29 vs Cristian (1466 Weak) 7-6 6-0 L 06-13 London SF vs Raducanu (1800 Strong) 2-6 2-6 W 06-12 London QF vs Anisimova (1898 Elite) 6-2 3-6 6-3 — beat ELITE W 06-10 London R16 vs Eala (1864 Elite) 6-2 6-2 DOM FO: beat Navarro (1788), took Osaka & Gauff to 3 sets. Rising USA talent, strong on grass. FATIGUE: Maria matches_14d=8, court 449min, back-to-back 4d, 24 sets — COOKED. Jovic matches_14d=1, court 61min — FRESH. Heavy edge JOVIC. NARRATIVE: Maria LET-DOWN — lost Eastbourne Final 06-27 then lost again 06-29. Coming off a draining title-less finals run while completely gassed. Jovic carrying live grass momentum vs elite opposition. VERDICT: Model's +13.5% edge on Maria is a FATIGUE TRAP — her finals run inflated ELO while she is physically destroyed and 0-2 in her last two. The qualitative read validates JOVIC (the market favorite), not the model's value pick. Fading the model means no value remains, and Jovic @1.30 offers none either. PASS.