TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Maria vs A. Zakharova (Eastbourne on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with T. Maria favoured at 1.45.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Maria | A. Zakharova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
60.5% | 39.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
48.9% | 51.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
59.5% | 40.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
56.3% | 43.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.6% | 34.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Maria | hard | 1566 | 112–109 | 221 |
| A. Zakharova | hard | 1771 | 168–89 | 257 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
T. Maria leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | T. Maria | 2 - 0 |
| L | C. McNally | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | I. Marton | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Gibson | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | K. Volynets | 0 - 2 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Osorio | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Fruhvirtova | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | H. Vandewinkel | 0 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Prozorova | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
The mathematical consensus suggests a 7.9% edge on Zakharova, primarily driven by an ML model outlier projection of 51% which conflicts with the more conservative ELO (39.5%). Qualitative analysis reveals significant risks: the Market Trend framework explicitly warns that Zakharova is 'possibly over-priced' due to the market chasing her recent form, while T. Maria has secured higher-quality wins against top opponents (Paolini, Sakkari) on this surface. Additionally, data inconsistencies in the match logs (e.g., 'Won 0-2') and Maria's heavy recent workload introduce variance that the models may not have fully accounted for. We recommend a PASS due to the unreliable nature of the mathematical edge.