TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Korpatsch vs J. Stusek (Hamburg on 2026-07-22) — the market is efficient, with T. Korpatsch favoured at 1.18.
═══ T. Korpatsch vs J. Stusek — WTA Hamburg, clay, 1/8-finals ═══
MODELS vs MARKET
Book: A 1.18 (80.4%) / B 4.84 (20.7%)
Betfair: A 1.02 / B 4.00 (25.0%) — overround 1.23, thin/illiquid
ELO 75.6% A | ML 60.6% A | Blend 69.8% A → flagged value B (+10.6% vs book)
Executable edge on B: 30.2% − 1/3.85 (comm-adj 4.0) = +4.3% — book 4.84 is a stale quote, exchange kills half the edge. Min odds 3.47 met, but edge thin.
RECENT FORM (last 5 shown)
Korpatsch (3-2 clay stretch mixed):
07-21 Hamburg W J. Jimenez Kasintseva (1547 Avg) 4-6 7-5 1-0 — GRIND, likely ret.
07-08 Bastad L Lepchenko (1575)
07-07 Bastad W Bajraliu (1401 Weak) — DOM
06-29 Wimbledon L Gauff (1695 Strong)
06-20 Bad Homburg L Begu (1551 Avg)
Stusek (ITF-level baseline):
07-20 Hamburg W Podoroska (1635 Avg) 6-4 3-6 4-6 — 3-set upset, best win of career window
07-15 W50 Darmstadt L Schunk (1500) straight sets
07-01 W50 Stuttgart L Paquet (1500) straight sets
06-21 W35 Klosters F W Passola (1408 Weak) — GRIND (TB)
06-20 W35 Klosters SF W Nagy (1382 Weak)
FATIGUE
A: 3 matches/14d, 9 sets, 249min, back-to-back, played 07-21
B: 2 matches/14d, 6 sets, 192min, played 07-20
Diff ~57min → slight edge Stusek, both short on rest. Not decisive.
NARRATIVE
Stusek: TITLE W35 Klosters 30d ago (clay); home German wildcard momentum. Venue Hamburg 1-0 (this event).
Korpatsch: no recent title (Paris ITF 71d); venue Hamburg 1-0 (this event). No let-down spots.
VERDICT: PASS
ML model's 39% for Stusek is the only real disagreement, and the qualitative read refutes it: straight-set losses to ~1500 ITF players twice this month say her level is below the model's estimate — Podoroska win is a single outlier. Exchange already compressed B to 4.0 on a thin book; ~4% commission-adjusted edge on an illiquid small-event market is exactly the losing segment. No alt markets priced. Skeptic wins.