TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Kokkinakis vs A. Bublik (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with A. Bublik favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Kokkinakis | A. Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
27.3% | 72.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
27.3% | 72.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.1% | 71.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Kokkinakis | hard | 1789 | 96–56 | 152 |
| A. Bublik | hard | 1879 | 111–93 | 204 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
A. Bublik leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Bublik | 3 - 2 |
| L | A. Popyrin | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Walton | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | E. Zhu | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Bublik | 2 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Rublev | 1 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | F. Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: T. Kokkinakis (A) vs A. Bublik (B) — Wimbledon 1/64-finals, grass MODELS: ELO A 0.273 | ML A 0.476 | Model A 0.273 | Market implied A 0.281 (odds A 3.40 / B 1.33). ELO ~= Market (consensus on Bublik); ML is the lone dissenter nudging Kokkinakis to a near-coinflip. Value edge on B only +0.8% — model_prob_b 0.727 vs implied 0.719, essentially priced. FORM A (Kokkinakis): 2 exhibition wins (Boodles) 06-23/24 — discount. Lost Dublin QUALIFYING R16 to Kym 06-16. Won Dublin Qual Final vs Elamin 6-2 6-1 (DOM vs Avg) 06-15 and SF vs Mayot (GRIND, super-TB). Grass reps are qualifying/exo level only. Clay before that (Zagreb title 05-11, FO R2). FORM B (Bublik): Reached Stuttgart SF on grass — beat Struff (3set) and Mpetshi Perricard (GRIND, two TBs vs Strong 1727), lost to Fritz (Elite 1989) 4-6 4-6. Lost Halle R32 to Bellucci 06-16. Genuine top-level grass form; big serve. FATIGUE: A heavily loaded — 5 matches/14d, ~460min court time, back-to-back 3 days, last match 06-24. B fresh — 2 matches/14d, ~152min, last match 06-16. Court-time diff >300min => Kokkinakis clearly disadvantaged. Fatigue favors the favorite (B). NARRATIVE: A's recent 'final' is a Qualifying Final (low signal), 15d ago — no let-down window. No venue history at Wimbledon for either in window. No underdog catalyst for Kokkinakis. VERDICT: ML's bump for Kokkinakis is not validated by the qualitative read — he is lower class, gassed (heavy schedule + b2b), and his grass reps are quali/exo. Bublik is fresh and carrying real grass form (Stuttgart SF). But B at 1.33 offers no value (edge +0.8%, model in line with market) and ELO/market already agree. No exploitable edge either direction => PASS.