TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Griekspoor vs J. Duckworth (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with T. Griekspoor favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Griekspoor | J. Duckworth |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
64.8% | 35.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
79.7% | 20.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
66.6% | 33.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Griekspoor | hard | 1796 | 86–76 | 162 |
| J. Duckworth | hard | 1685 | 190–126 | 316 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
J. Duckworth leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Duckworth | 3 - 1 |
| L | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | C. Moutet | 2 - 3 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | C. O'Connell | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Mayo | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
T. Griekspoor vs J. Duckworth | Wimbledon 1/64-finals | grass MODELS: ELO 0.648 A | ML 0.531 A | model 0.666 A | market implied 0.682 A (1.40 / 3.00). Value pick B, edge +1.6% after shrinkage. ELO+model+market roughly consensus on A; only ML mildly dissents (~0.47 B). FORM (grass, 90d): - Griekspoor 1-2: L Shimabukuro(1719) 3set, L Z.Zhang(1622), W Van de Zandschulp(1569) GRIND 3set. Otherwise clay slump (lost 6 of last 8 overall). Off since 6/16 (14d) -> rested but rusty. - Duckworth 1-3: L Hussey(1427!) Eastbourne SF, L Vukic(1636) London SF, L Lehecka(1777) GRIND 3set, W Dedura(1500). Reached two low-tier grass SFs but skidding; loss to a #1427 is a red flag. FATIGUE: A 1 match/14d, 120min; B 2 matches/14d, 141min, last 6/20 (10d). Roughly equal, slight load on B but well within range. NARRATIVE: No recent Final won by either on grass -> no let-down. Duckworth's clay title run (Mexico City 4/13) is two surfaces and 11 weeks stale, irrelevant on grass. VERDICT: The only model disagreeing with the market is ML, by a thin margin, producing a sub-2% edge on Duckworth. Qualitative read does NOT validate backing the dog: Duckworth is 1-3 on grass with a loss to a 1427-rated player, while Griekspoor is the higher-class player even if rusty. Thin statistical edge killed by poor underdog form = efficient price. PASS.