TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Gibson vs M. Keys (Eastbourne on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with M. Keys favoured at 1.26.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Gibson | M. Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.9% | 80.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
35.8% | 64.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
43.6% | 56.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
33.1% | 66.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
24.7% | 75.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
M. Keys leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Eastbourne | grass | M. Keys | 2 - 0 |
| W | E. Cocciaretto | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Keys | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | Ka. Pliskova | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
The mathematical model suggests a 2.6% edge on T. Gibson, but this is driven solely by the ML model while the ELO model (19.9%) strongly disagrees. Crucially, the Market-Elo Trend indicates the market is 'chasing' Gibson's recent lower-tier results, explicitly suggesting he is over-priced. M. Keys is a proven specialist at this venue (aiming for a 3rd title) and is coming off a high-level quarterfinal run in Berlin, offering a qualitative edge that contradicts the raw value signal. We override the mathematical edge on the underdog due to the high probability of market correction and the favorite's venue dominance.