TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Fritz vs R. Jodar (Washington on 2026-08-02) — the market is efficient, with T. Fritz favoured at 1.69.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Fritz | R. Jodar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.5% | 44.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
65.9% | 34.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
39.1% | 60.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.5% | 44.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
56.2% | 43.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
T. Fritz leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 3, 2026 | Washington | hard | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 20, 2026 | Delray Beach | hard | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| W | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Musetti | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Nishikori | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
All Aug. 2, 2026 results & picks →
WASHINGTON FINAL — T. Fritz (A) vs R. Jodar (B) | hard
MODELS vs MARKET
ELO: Fritz 55.45% | ML: Fritz 65.92% | model 55.45%
Betfair ML: Fritz 1.79 (imp 55.9%) / Jodar 2.22 (imp 45.0%)
Book: 1.69 / 2.17. value_pick B, edge +0.8% (negligible).
ELO (55.45%) and the exchange (55.9%) agree almost exactly -> efficient.
ML (65.9%) is the LONE outlier and the suspect one: ML weights ranking
(9 vs 165), which is badly stale for Jodar. ELO/ranking sanity: Jodar rank
165 but ELO/live form far above it -> ML overrates Fritz. Discount the ML edge.
RECENT FORM (last 5 each)
Fritz: W Nakashima(1857) 3set, W Michelsen(1901) 7-6 grind, W Majchrzak(1763)
6-3 6-4, W Bergs(1766) 6-3 6-4, then Wimb QF L Zverev. Winning but grinding
through 3-setters vs strong fields. Shape STABLE (wins over 1850+ real, but
two 3-set survivals -> not dominant).
Jodar: W Tabilo(1830), W Musetti(1924), W Nishikori(1752), W Fils(1954) —
an extraordinary dream run for a 19yo rank-165. Shape strongly SHARPENING /
over-performing. Match-sharp, 4 wins deep at venue.
PATH: both 4 matches deep in Washington, both match-sharp. Fritz SF 08-01,
Jodar SF 08-02 (Fritz slightly more rested). No surface transition (both hard).
FATIGUE: both 4 matches/7d, ~12 sets. Cumulative load ~equal = context only.
Jodar 19 (recovers fast) -> any 3-set-hangover softened. Fritz 28 baseline,
extra rest day. Not an edge either way; cannot create a bet (G1).
NARRATIVE: no let-down (neither won a Final recently). Player notes: LWOT frames
it as "brightest young prospect vs biggest server" — qualitative, no injury/doubt.
MARKET CHOICE
ML: no edge on Fritz (ELO+market both 55%, only stale-ranking ML says 66%).
No edge on Jodar (ELO 44.5% ~ market 45%, edge <1%).
Totals: model under@22.5 = 52.0%; market line 23.0 -> under ~3% edge, below 5%.
Handicap: Fritz -1.5 @1.98, no model cover prob; Fritz winning via 3-setters
vs a sharp dog makes -1.5 high-variance with no supporting margin evidence.
AH: B +1.5 @1.94 (no thesis, pass). alt_markets present.
VERDICT: PASS. The exchange and ELO agree tightly; the only model disagreeing
(ML) is the ranking-driven one contradicted by Jodar's live over-performing run,
so it provides no trustworthy edge. Market already fully prices the young dog at
45%. No market clears the edge bar. Professional outcome: no bet.