AI match preview for T. Fritz vs L. Musetti (Stockholm on 2026-11-13): models, form and the market read. No bot verdict is published for this match yet. T. Fritz is the market favourite at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Fritz | L. Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.9% | 37.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
52.2% | 47.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
65.6% | 34.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.2% | 39.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.5% | 39.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Fritz | hard | 1969 | 193–101 | 294 |
| L. Musetti | hard | 1902 | 106–91 | 197 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 12, 2026.
L. Musetti leads 5–3 over 8 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 25, 2026 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | — | L. Musetti | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 26, 2026 | Australian Open | hard | L. Musetti | 3 - 0 |
| Nov. 10, 2025 | Finals - Turin | hard | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| July 31, 2024 | Olympic Games | clay | L. Musetti | 2 - 0 |
| July 10, 2024 | ATP Wimbledon | grass | L. Musetti | 3 - 2 |
| W | H. Rune | Walk Over | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | Nov. 11, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 0 - 2 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 1 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 2 - 1 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | T. Samuel | 2 - 0 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Zverev | 0 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 0 | Nov. 2, 2026 |
All Nov. 13, 2026 results & picks →