TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Fritz vs J. Draper (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with T. Fritz favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Fritz | J. Draper |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.5% | 30.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
41.9% | 58.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
73.9% | 26.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
69.5% | 30.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
J. Draper leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 13, 2025 | ATP Indian Wells | hard | J. Draper | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 30, 2024 | ATP Paris | hard | J. Draper | 2 - 1 |
| July 30, 2024 | Olympic Games | clay | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 |
| April 19, 2024 | ATP Munich | clay | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 |
| June 13, 2022 | London | grass | J. Draper | 2 - 0 |
| W | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | G. Diallo | 2 - 0 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Pinnington Jones | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | M. Giron | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 1 - 1 | April 13, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used