TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Fritz vs J. Choinski (Eastbourne on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with T. Fritz favoured at 1.13.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Fritz | J. Choinski |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
91.4% | 8.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
81.8% | 18.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
91.4% | 8.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
83.5% | 16.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Fritz | hard | 1972 | 179–93 | 272 |
| J. Choinski | clay | 1806 | 151–83 | 234 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
| W | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | J. Mackenzie | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | F. A. Gomez | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | O. Wallin | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Barrena | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | F. Passaro | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used