TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Fritz vs D. Lajovic (Wimbledon on 2026-06-30) — the market is efficient, with T. Fritz favoured at 1.04.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Fritz | D. Lajovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
93.0% | 7.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
87.4% | 12.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
91.2% | 8.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
94.2% | 5.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Fritz | hard | 1972 | 179–93 | 272 |
| D. Lajovic | clay | 1639 | 99–80 | 179 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
T. Fritz leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | T. Fritz | 3 - 0 |
| May 30, 2024 | ATP French Open | clay | T. Fritz | 3 - 1 |
| Aug. 18, 2023 | ATP Cincinnati | hard | T. Fritz | 0 - 0 |
| W | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Hewitt | 0 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | V. Gaubas | 3 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | C. Rodesch | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
All June 30, 2026 results & picks →
T. Fritz vs D. Lajovic — Wimbledon, grass, 1/64-finals MODELS: ELO 92.99% A | ML 87.35% A | blended 91.24% A. Market: Fritz 1.04 (impl 94.2%), Lajovic 17.0 (devig 5.76%). value_pick=B, edge +3.0% — but this is a devig artifact on a 17.0 longshot, not a real signal. FORM (Fritz, grass): Halle FINALIST (lost to Tiafoe). En route beat Shelton (1910, Elite) GRIND and Zverev (1876, Elite) GRIND, plus DOM over Marozsan 6-2 6-4. Genuine top-tier grass form vs elite opposition. Last match 06-21 -> 9 days rested. FORM (Lajovic, grass/clay): challenger-level grinder. Just played a 5-set FINAL loss to Gaubas (1584) at a minor 'Wimbledon' event 5d ago; prior clay results are challenger-tier losses (Cattolica Q, Perugia, Monza). Quality of opposition far below Fritz's. FATIGUE: Fritz 5 matches/14d, 589min court time but 9 days rest — recovered. Lajovic 2 matches/7d incl a 5-set final 5d ago — the more fatigued side. No fatigue case for the underdog; if anything it cuts against Lajovic. NARRATIVE: No active let-down for Fritz (last final 9d ago). Lajovic's grass run was vs weak/avg fields. No venue or title momentum that creates an edge. VERDICT: Model and market are in near-consensus (~90-94% Fritz). The +3% 'value' on Lajovic is pure de-vig noise on a 17.0 longshot, and the qualitative read (Fritz beating two Elite players on grass, well rested; Lajovic a tired challenger-level grinder) actively kills it rather than validating it. No bettable edge. PASS.