TENNISEDGE.GG

T. Droguet vs C. Ugo Carabelli — Prediction & Analysis

Estoril · ATP Estoril - 1/16-finals · July 20, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Droguet vs C. Ugo Carabelli (Estoril on 2026-07-20) — the market is efficient, with T. Droguet favoured at 1.90.

Surface clay Odds T. Droguet 1.90 · C. Ugo Carabelli 1.90

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: T. Droguet · C. Ugo Carabelli · head-to-head record

Full analysis

═══ T. Droguet vs C. Ugo Carabelli — Estoril (clay), 1/16-finals ═══

MODELS & MARKET
  Book: 1.90 / 1.90 (no-vig 50/50) | Betfair ML: 2.10 / 1.88 (exchange leans B ~53%)
  ELO: 47.6% A | ML: 49.1% A | Blend: 48.4% A → all mildly favor B (51.6%)
  Value pick B, no-vig edge +1.6% — but raw implied for B at 1.90 is 52.6%, so raw EV is negative.

RECENT FORM (last 5 shown; all fetched matches used)
  Droguet (A): 5-3 last 8, brutal stretch
    07-16 Umag QF     L vs Merida Aguilar (1757) 6-1 6-3 — flat loss
    07-15 Umag R16    W vs van Assche (1710) 3 sets — GRIND
    07-14 Umag R32    W vs Blockx (1861, Elite) 3 sets — GRIND, quality scalp
    07-12 Iasi FINAL  L vs Piros (1792) w/ TB — GRIND
    07-11 Iasi SF     W vs Royer (1728)
    Profile: tiebreak-heavy grinder; 1 DOM (vs Heide 1796 07-10), most wins GRIND.
  Ugo Carabelli (B): 2-1 Umag run, then gap to Wimbledon
    07-16 Umag QF     L vs Burruchaga (1798) 3 sets
    07-15 Umag R16    W vs Carreno-Busta (1850, Elite) 3 sets — GRIND, quality scalp
    07-14 Umag R32    W vs Topo (1544) 3 sets, 2 TBs — GRIND vs Weak
    06-29 Wimbledon   L vs Merida Aguilar
    06-25 Exhibition  L vs Bellucci
    Profile: clay-solid, beat an Elite last week, but grinds even Weak opponents.

FATIGUE (precomputed)
  A: 8 matches/14d, 24 sets, 908 court-min, b2b streak 5, last 07-16
  B: 3 matches/14d, 9 sets, 532 court-min, last 07-16
  Diff 376 min → heavier side (A) disadvantaged, BUT both have had ~4 days rest since Umag, which blunts most of it.

NARRATIVE
  Let-down: A lost Iasi Final 07-12 — 8d ago, outside all windows → None. B: no finals → None.
  Venue: neither player has Estoril history in fetched window → no venue signal.
  Title recency: A — Won "ATP Madrid - Final" 90d ago (clay, data-quirk entry); too stale to matter.

VERDICT: PASS
  Every signal points the same direction: models lean B, the sharper Betfair exchange leans B harder
  (1.88), and the fatigue differential favors B — the market has already priced all of it. Book no-vig
  edge is only +1.6% and raw EV at 1.90 is negative. Alt markets add nothing: B -0.5 model edge ~0.7%,
  Under 23 ~3% with no independent margin read (both players are tiebreak grinders, which if anything
  argues Over, killing the thin Under lean). Full model+market consensus = no edge.

More from Estoril