TennisEdge's AI bot is backing S. Zhang (moneyline) at 2.44 in S. Zhang vs A. Li (Cincinnati on 2026-08-16). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Zhang | A. Li |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
49.9% | 50.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
41.2% | 58.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.5% | 39.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.8% | 54.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.5% | 65.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Oct. 25, 2026.
A. Li leads 4–0 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 16, 2026 | Cincinnati | hard | A. Li | 2 - 0 |
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | A. Li | 2 - 0 |
| May 5, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Li | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 25, 2025 | Guangzhou | hard | A. Li | 0 - 0 |
| L | T. Valentova | 2 - 0 | Oct. 25, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
| L | W. Trongcharoenchaikul | 0 - 2 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
| L | T. Valentova | 2 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| L | A. Krueger | 2 - 0 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 0 - 2 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | A. Krueger | 1 - 2 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
| W | L. Tagger | 2 - 1 | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| W | Z. Sonmez | 2 - 0 | Oct. 22, 2026 |
| W | E. Jones | 2 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
All Aug. 16, 2026 results & picks →