S. Zhang vs A. Li — Prediction & Analysis

Cincinnati · WTA Cincinnati - 1/32-finals · Aug. 16, 2026 · 16:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing S. Zhang (moneyline) at 2.44 in S. Zhang vs A. Li (Cincinnati on 2026-08-16). Result: LOST.

Surface hard Odds S. Zhang 2.75 · A. Li 1.45

Bot bet

S. Zhang (moneyline) @ 2.44 · 0.5u
Result: LOST
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: S. Zhang · A. Li · head-to-head record · Cincinnati

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method S. Zhang A. Li
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
49.9% 50.1%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
41.2% 58.8%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
60.5% 39.5%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
45.8% 54.2%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
34.5% 65.5%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
S. Zhang hard1712 113–92205
A. Li hard1777 123–93216

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 30, 2026.

Head to head

A. Li leads 4–0 over 4 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 16, 2026CincinnatihardA. Li2 - 0
May 26, 2026French OpenclayA. Li2 - 0
May 5, 2026RomeclayA. Li2 - 1
Oct. 25, 2025GuangzhouhardA. Li0 - 0

Recent form

S. Zhang

L L. Fernandez 0 - 2 Aug. 30, 2026
L M. Timofeeva 0 - 2 Aug. 25, 2026
L A. Li 0 - 2 Aug. 16, 2026
W K. Day 2 - 1 Aug. 15, 2026
L A. Sabalenka 2 - 0 Aug. 6, 2026

A. Li

L L. Noskova 1 - 2 Sept. 4, 2026
W D. Vekic 2 - 1 Sept. 2, 2026
W A. Ruzic 2 - 0 Aug. 31, 2026
L D. Parry 2 - 0 Aug. 28, 2026
W A. Parks 0 - 2 Aug. 27, 2026

All Aug. 16, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →