TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Yamalapalli vs E. Ovcharenko (Newport on 2026-07-05) — the market is efficient, with S. Yamalapalli favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Yamalapalli | E. Ovcharenko |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.3% | 48.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
58.5% | 41.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
58.4% | 41.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
66.1% | 33.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Yamalapalli | hard | 1503 | 101–91 | 192 |
| E. Ovcharenko | hard | 1279 | 33–48 | 81 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 30, 2026.
S. Yamalapalli leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 5, 2026 | Newport | grass | S. Yamalapalli | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. S. Rogers | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | E. Ovcharenko | 2 - 0 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | C. Ngounoue | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Honer | 2 - 0 | June 27, 2026 |
| W | S. Broadus | 2 - 0 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | A. Raina | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Vagramov | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | S. Yamalapalli | 2 - 0 | July 5, 2026 |
| L | N. Vargova | 2 - 1 | May 20, 2026 |
| W | T. J. Brockmann | 2 - 1 | May 19, 2026 |
All July 5, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used