TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Wawrinka vs M. Berrettini (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with M. Berrettini favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Wawrinka | M. Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
12.4% | 87.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
26.8% | 73.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
12.4% | 87.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
25.4% | 74.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wawrinka | hard | 1720 | 58–54 | 112 |
| M. Berrettini | hard | 1804 | 70–53 | 123 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Feb. 25, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Berrettini | 3 - 1 |
| Dec. 8, 2022 | Diriyah Tennis Cup | hard | S. Wawrinka | 2 - 1 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | J. Faria | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | M. Berrettini | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. De Jong | 1 - 3 | May 25, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 0 - 2 | May 20, 2026 |
| L | M. Navone | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 3 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Wawrinka | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Arnaldi | 0 - 1 | June 3, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used