TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Waltert vs P. Badosa (Bastad on 2026-07-11) — the market is efficient, with P. Badosa favoured at 1.29.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Waltert | P. Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.6% | 49.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
42.3% | 57.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.9% | 45.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.0% | 57.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
28.7% | 71.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Waltert | clay | 1732 | 123–80 | 203 |
| P. Badosa | hard | 1824 | 78–54 | 132 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
P. Badosa leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 11, 2026 | Bastad | clay | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | K. Kawa | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Kawa | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Zidansek | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
All July 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used