TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Waltert vs L. Romero Gormaz (Bastad on 2026-07-09) — the market is efficient, with S. Waltert favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Waltert | L. Romero Gormaz |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.1% | 37.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
69.2% | 30.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.8% | 31.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.1% | 37.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
62.5% | 37.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Waltert | clay | 1732 | 123–80 | 203 |
| L. Romero Gormaz | clay | 1645 | 174–119 | 293 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 9, 2026 | Bastad | clay | S. Waltert | 2 - 0 |
| April 4, 2025 | Antalya 3 | clay | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | K. Kawa | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
| L | S. Sorribes Tormo | 1 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | O. Oliynykova | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | V. Erjavec | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | P. Udvardy | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | Z. Kulambayeva | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
All July 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used