TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Waltert vs A. Lazaro Garcia (Makarska on 2026-06-04) — the market is efficient, with S. Waltert favoured at 1.75.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Waltert | A. Lazaro Garcia |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.9% | 46.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
62.9% | 37.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.1% | 36.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.0% | 40.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
52.6% | 47.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Waltert | clay | 1732 | 123–80 | 203 |
| A. Lazaro Garcia | clay | 1688 | 116–82 | 198 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
A. Lazaro Garcia leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 4, 2026 | Makarska | clay | A. Lazaro Garcia | 2 - 0 |
| May 18, 2023 | ITF W100 Madrid Women | clay | A. Lazaro Garcia | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 1, 2021 | W25 Lisbon 2 | clay | A. Lazaro Garcia | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | K. Kawa | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| W | K. Quevedo | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | L. Romero Gormaz | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | C. Paquet | 1 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | L. Pigossi | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | N. Podoroska | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Z. Kulambayeva | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 2 - 1 | June 24, 2026 |
All June 4, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used