TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Tsitsipas vs N. Djokovic (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with N. Djokovic favoured at 1.15.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Tsitsipas | N. Djokovic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
10.3% | 89.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
23.0% | 77.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
10.3% | 89.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
17.3% | 82.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Tsitsipas | hard | 1815 | 133–83 | 216 |
| N. Djokovic | hard | 2085 | 127–26 | 153 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
N. Djokovic leads 7–1 over 8 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | N. Djokovic | 3 - 0 |
| Aug. 1, 2024 | Olympic Games | clay | N. Djokovic | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 29, 2023 | Australian Open | hard | N. Djokovic | 3 - 0 |
| Nov. 14, 2022 | Finals - Turin | hard | N. Djokovic | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 5, 2022 | Paris | hard | N. Djokovic | 2 - 1 |
| W | K. Rice | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | J. Sinner | 3 - 0 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 3 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | R. Safiullin | 1 - 3 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 1 - 3 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
Tsitsipas vs Djokovic — Wimbledon, grass, 1/32-finals MODELS - ELO prob A (Tsitsipas): 0.103 | ML prob A: 0.230 | Consensus model_prob A: 0.103 - Market: A @5.5 (impl 0.173) / B @1.15 (impl 0.827); value pick B, edge +0.07 - Models internally split: ELO ultra-confident Djokovic (90%), ML softer (77%). Both still favor Djokovic. FORM - Tsitsipas: beat Gaston (1581) 6-1 6-4 6-2 in Wimbledon R1 — clean DOM vs Avg. But brutal clay swing before grass: L Buse(1524), L Arnaldi, L Tien, L Machac, L Ruud, L Marozsan, L Cerundolo. Two grass exhibition wins (low signal). Trend: poor. - Djokovic: scraped past Wu (1382, Weak) 4-6 7-5 4-6 6-4 — GRIND, dropped 2 sets to a sub-1400 opponent. Recent losses to Fonseca (RG 5-set) and Prizmic (Rome). Shaky but class still elevated above Tsitsipas's level. FATIGUE - Tsitsipas: 4 matches / 437 court-min in 14d, back-to-back days, last match 06-29 — heavy load. - Djokovic: 2 matches / 279 court-min, no back-to-back. Court-time diff >150min → Tsitsipas clearly disadvantaged. Fatigue reinforces favorite, removes any upset angle. NARRATIVE - No recent Final for either → no let-down spot. - Venue: both 1-0 at this Wimbledon (just R1 wins). No amplifying edge. VERDICT: PASS. Full model+market consensus on Djokovic. To back Tsitsipas at 5.5 you need >18% true; consensus model_prob is 10.3% and his form/fatigue profile is poor — no validated upset edge despite ML's softer 23%. Djokovic @1.15 carries only ~3% model EV and he showed real vulnerability (2 sets dropped to a 1382 player), so the price isn't worth the tail risk. No bet.