TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Tsitsipas vs I. Buse (Mallorca on 2026-06-23) — the market is efficient, with S. Tsitsipas favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Tsitsipas | I. Buse |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.9% | 30.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.5% | 38.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.8% | 41.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Tsitsipas | hard | 1815 | 133–83 | 216 |
| I. Buse | clay | 1814 | 133–81 | 214 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 14, 2026 | Gstaad | clay | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 |
| June 23, 2026 | Mallorca | grass | I. Buse | 2 - 0 |
| W | K. Rice | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | V. Kopriva | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
All June 23, 2026 results & picks →
The model consensus gives Tsitsipas a 60.2% win probability, creating a slim 1.4% edge over the devigged market price, but the Kelly criterion correctly suggests 0 units due to negative expected value at the offered 1.61 odds. Qualitative analysis reveals significant risk: Tsitsipas has not played a competitive match in 26 days and has 0 grass court appearances this season, while Buse is a confirmed grass specialist who played last week. With the market potentially over-pricing Tsitsipas due to name recognition and the ELO/ML models disagreeing significantly (70% vs 53%), the prudent action is to pass on this bet.