AI match preview for S. Stephens vs J. Tjen (Guadalajara on 2026-09-15): models, form and the market read. No bot verdict is published for this match yet. J. Tjen is the market favourite at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Stephens | J. Tjen |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.0% | 57.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
50.5% | 49.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
38.0% | 62.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.8% | 56.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
44.9% | 55.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Stephens | hard | 1666 | 58–73 | 131 |
| J. Tjen | hard | 1763 | 109–34 | 143 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 14, 2026.
| W | C. Monnet | 0 - 2 | Sept. 14, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | Sept. 2, 2026 |
| W | C. Tauson | 2 - 0 | Aug. 31, 2026 |
| L | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 1 | Aug. 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | Aug. 18, 2026 |
| W | D. Vidmanova | 0 - 2 | Sept. 13, 2026 |
| L | M. Andreeva | 2 - 0 | Sept. 1, 2026 |
| L | Y. Starodubtseva | 0 - 2 | Aug. 25, 2026 |
| W | D. Yastremska | 2 - 1 | Aug. 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | Aug. 18, 2026 |
All Sept. 15, 2026 results & picks →