TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Stephens vs B. Bencic (Toronto on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with B. Bencic favoured at 1.09.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Stephens | B. Bencic |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
10.2% | 89.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
11.8% | 88.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
18.7% | 81.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
15.2% | 84.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
18.5% | 81.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Stephens | hard | 1620 | 53–68 | 121 |
| B. Bencic | hard | 1998 | 116–52 | 168 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
S. Stephens leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 20, 2022 | Guadalajara 2 | hard | S. Stephens | 2 - 0 |
| W | S. Sierra | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | H. Dart | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Y. Starodubtseva | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Stojsavljevic | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 2 - 1 | May 31, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used