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S. Sorribes Tormo vs V. Jimenez Kasintseva — Prediction & Analysis

Wimbledon · WTA Wimbledon - 1/64-finals · June 29, 2026 · 12:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Sorribes Tormo vs V. Jimenez Kasintseva (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with S. Sorribes Tormo favoured at 1.72.

Surface grass Odds S. Sorribes Tormo 1.72 · V. Jimenez Kasintseva 2.10

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: S. Sorribes Tormo · V. Jimenez Kasintseva · head-to-head record · Wimbledon

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method S. Sorribes Tormo V. Jimenez Kasintseva
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
 40.3% 59.7%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
 49.5% 50.6%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
 44.9% 55.1%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
 55.0% 45.0%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
S. Sorribes Tormo hard1519 62–59121
V. Jimenez Kasintseva clay1538 90–67157

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Feb. 17, 2026.

Head to head

S. Sorribes Tormo leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
June 29, 2026WimbledongrassS. Sorribes Tormo2 - 0
June 2, 2026MakarskaclayS. Sorribes Tormo2 - 0

Recent form

S. Sorribes Tormo

L L. Bronzetti 1 - 2 July 31, 2026
W C. W. Hennemann 2 - 0 July 29, 2026
W L. Romero Gormaz 1 - 2 July 27, 2026
L A. Charaeva 1 - 2 July 21, 2026
L A. Bondar 2 - 0 July 13, 2026

V. Jimenez Kasintseva

L A. Parks 0 - 2 Aug. 3, 2026
W M. Bassols 2 - 1 Aug. 1, 2026
L T. Korpatsch 1 - 1 July 21, 2026
L A. Charaeva 2 - 0 July 13, 2026
L S. Sorribes Tormo 2 - 0 June 29, 2026

All June 29, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

═══ S. Sorribes Tormo vs V. Jimenez Kasintseva | Wimbledon GRASS | R1 (1/64) ═══

MODELS
  ELO:    40% Sorribes / 60% Jimenez   (strongly favors Jimenez)
  ML:     49% / 51%                      (essentially a coin flip)
  Ensemble: 45% / 55%   (model winner = Jimenez)
  Market: 55% Sorribes / 45% Jimenez  (devigged)
  Odds:   1.72 Sorribes / 2.10 Jimenez
  Value:  JIMENEZ  edge +10.1%   (confidence: LOW)

ALIGNMENT CHECK
  ELO agrees with market?  NO    ML agrees with market?  NO
  -> BOTH models disagree with market = investigate qualitatively

RECENT FORM (last 90d — ALL CLAY, zero grass for either)
  Sorribes: 11-4 | beats Avg (1500-1650), loses only to Strong (1690-1730)
    06-02 W vs Jimenez Kasintseva 2-0  <- H2H, 27d ago, straight sets
  Jimenez:  4-8 | beats Weak/Avg, loses to sub-1600 incl. a 1310
    04-11 L vs Zvonareva [1310] 0-2  <- red flag

FATIGUE
  Sorribes: 0 matches/14d | last 06-06 -> 23d rest
  Jimenez:  0 matches/14d | last 06-13 -> 16d rest
  EDGE: Roughly equal. BOTH cold — long layoff, no grass warm-up.

NARRATIVE SIGNALS
  LETDOWN: none    VENUE: neither has Wimbledon history
  H2H: Sorribes beat Jimenez 2-0 just 27 days ago (clay)

QUALITATIVE VERDICT
  Jimenez's +10% value is built ENTIRELY on stale grass-surface ELO (zero grass
  matches in 90d). Every live signal cuts the other way: Sorribes 11-4 vs 4-8,
  Jimenez lost to a 1310, and Sorribes won the H2H in straight sets <1 month ago.
  Per 'live form > historical surface ELO,' the edge is a rating artifact. But the
  market already prices Sorribes fairly (55% mkt vs 45% model) — no value on her
  either. Grass + double cold layoff = high variance neither model captures.

DECISION
  PASS   (lean Sorribes on merits, but no price)
  Reason: Jimenez's edge is a stale-grass-ELO mirage refuted by recent H2H and
  live form; Sorribes is the right side but offers no value at 1.72.

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