TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Sierra vs C. Gauff (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with C. Gauff favoured at 1.17.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Sierra | C. Gauff |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.7% | 56.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
27.1% | 72.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
29.3% | 70.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
16.5% | 83.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 29, 2026.
C. Gauff leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | Rome | clay | C. Gauff | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 3, 2026 | WTA United Cup | hard | C. Gauff | 2 - 0 |
| L | S. Stephens | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Prozorova | 1 - 2 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Bondar | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
S. Sierra vs C. Gauff — Wimbledon 1/32-finals (grass) MODELS: ELO A 0.437 | ML A 0.271 | Model A 0.293 | Market (devig) A 0.165 | Odds A 5.93 / B 1.17. Value pick A, edge +12.8%. Both models price Sierra above market => numeric edge exists. FORM — SIERRA (grass, recent first): W Bondar(1352,weak) 6-3 5-7 7-5 GRIND (Wim R1); L Q.Zheng(1668); W Blinkova(1649,avg) FINAL 3-6 7-5 6-4 GRIND => TITLE Bad Homburg ~10d ago; W Seidel(1581,avg) 6-2 6-1 DOM; L McNally(1754). Grass form is good but every quality win is vs sub-1700 fields. FORM — GAUFF (recent first): W Korpatsch(1332) 6-2 6-1 DOM (Wim R1); L Badosa(1716); L Potapova(1924) RG R2; reached Rome FINAL (beat Andreeva 1995, Cirstea 1908). Elite tier (~2000 ELO), grass rewards her bigger game. FATIGUE: Sierra 357 court-min/14d, matches_14d=4, back_to_back=2, 3-set grind yesterday. Gauff 125 min/14d, matches_14d=2, no B2B, fresh straight-sets win. Court-time diff 232min (>60) => Sierra heavily disadvantaged. NARRATIVE: Sierra TITLE Bad Homburg grass ~10d ago (positive form) but let-down window expired; she has played since. H2H: Gauff beat Sierra 5-7 6-0 6-4 (Rome, May) — Sierra competitive but lost. VERDICT: ELO 43.7% for Sierra is inflated — it ignores the large fatigue gap and the weak quality of her grass wins. Fresh elite (Gauff) on her best surface vs a fatigued clay-grinder coming off a B2B 3-set battle, plus a winning H2H, makes the market's 16.5% efficient or even generous. Qualitative read invalidates the model edge. No bet. Predicted winner Gauff.