TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Shimabukuro vs J. Faria (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with S. Shimabukuro favoured at 1.66.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Shimabukuro | J. Faria |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.0% | 47.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.0% | 40.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
55.9% | 44.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
57.0% | 43.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Shimabukuro | hard | 1657 | 165–116 | 281 |
| J. Faria | clay | 1796 | 92–74 | 166 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
J. Faria leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Faria | 3 - 1 |
| L | M. Cilic | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | N. Budkov Kjaer | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | R. Pacheco Mendez | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Faria | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | June 17, 2026 |
| L | C. O'Connell | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | G. Bueno | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | B. Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 1 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
MATCH: S. Shimabukuro (A) vs J. Faria (B) | Wimbledon 1/64-finals | grass | 2026-06-30 MODELS: ELO 53.0% A | ML 53.1% A | blended 55.9% A | serve/return 60.0% A MARKET: A @1.66 (impl 57.0%) | B @2.2 (impl 43.0%) | value pick B, edge +1.05% (post-shrink 0.0u) Alignment: ELO & ML both cluster within ~4pts of market -> efficient. Nominal value (B) is razor-thin. FORM A (Shimabukuro) - grass specialist, hot: W Stuttgart FINAL vs Rodionov (1545) 7-6 6-3 -> TITLE 06-07 (grass) W vs Kyrgios (1820, Elite) 6-4 7-6 6-4 GRIND -> real grass win W vs Halys (1648) 6-4 6-2 DOM W vs Griekspoor (1672) GRIND ; L Tiafoe (1674), L Shelton (1779) Last match 06-17 -> 13 days rest, fresh. FORM B (Faria) - clay grinder on a tear, but loaded: W Wimbledon FINAL vs Sakamoto (1650) 7-6 4-6 6-3 6-4 -> title 06-25 (5d ago) W vs Pavlovic (1633) 6-4 6-4 ; W vs Grenier (1462) DOM ; deep French Open run Bulk of wins on CLAY; grass is secondary surface. FATIGUE: A 3 matches/14d, 324min, rested. B 5 matches/14d, 470min, back-to-back 2, just off 4-set final. Court-time diff 146min (>60min) -> Faria disadvantaged. Edge to A. NARRATIVE: Faria WEAK let-down (won Final 5d ago). Venue: this is Shima's grass peak window; Faria off clay base. VERDICT: Qualitative read favors A (fresh, grass form, opponent fatigue + let-down) - which is precisely why the market made A favorite at 1.66. No price value remains on A. The nominal +1% value on B is killed by fatigue/surface/let-down. Model + market consensus, no exploitable edge. PASS.