TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Mochizuki vs M. Basing (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with S. Mochizuki favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Mochizuki | M. Basing |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
71.0% | 28.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.7% | 52.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
58.6% | 41.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
71.0% | 28.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Mochizuki | hard | 1558 | 118–110 | 228 |
| M. Basing | hard | 1594 | 75–26 | 101 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
S. Mochizuki leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 0 |
| W | D. Sweeny | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | H. Matsuoka | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | C. Broom | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Draxl | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Monday | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used