TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Mochizuki vs E. Quinn (Wimbledon on 2026-07-01) — the market is efficient, with E. Quinn favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Mochizuki | E. Quinn |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
59.7% | 40.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
33.1% | 66.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
43.4% | 56.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
40.2% | 59.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.8% | 70.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Mochizuki | hard | 1558 | 118–110 | 228 |
| E. Quinn | hard | 1803 | 112–77 | 189 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
S. Mochizuki leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 0 |
| W | D. Sweeny | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | H. Matsuoka | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | C. Broom | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Draxl | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Monday | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| L | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 3 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | June 27, 2026 |
| W | N. Borges | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | V. Kopriva | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
All July 1, 2026 results & picks →
S. Mochizuki (A) vs E. Quinn (B) | Wimbledon 1/32 (grass, best-of-5) MODELS: ELO 0.597 A | ML 0.331 A | model 0.402 A (favors B 0.598). Market: A 3.20 (29.8%) / B 1.36 (70.2%). Value pick A, edge +10.4% — but it is ELO-only; ML and market both favor Quinn. FORM (A — Mochizuki): W DOM v Basing(1565) 6-3 6-0 6-0; W Final v Tabur(1644) 5-set grind; W SF v Onclin(1586); W QF v Sachko(1346); L v Bertola(1672). Hot 4-match grass streak + a grass title 6/25, BUT opposition is Avg/Weak (1346-1644) — no Strong/Elite scalp. FORM (B — Quinn): W v Darderi(1500) 7-6 7-5 6-2 GRIND; L Mallorca Final v Davidovich Fokina(1744 Strong); W DOM v Borges(1623); W v Kopriva(1628); W DOM v Royer(1716 Strong); W v Khachanov(1837 ELITE); L v Shelton(1903 Elite). Opponent quality clearly superior — beat an Elite and a Strong on grass, reached a grass final. FATIGUE: A 6 matches/14d, 628min, last 2d ago. B 8 matches/14d, 858min (6-match Mallorca run to a final 6/27 + Wimbledon 6/29), b2b 3. Court-time diff 230min > 60min -> Quinn disadvantaged (the lone Mochizuki positive). NARRATIVE: Mochizuki TITLE Wimbledon-label grass 6d ago -> WEAK let-down only. Quinn LOST Mallorca final 6/27 but answered with a straight-sets win 6/29 — no letdown carryover. VERDICT: The +10.4% edge is ELO-only and contradicted by ML+market consensus. Qualitative read does NOT validate it: opponent quality strongly favors Quinn (Khachanov/Royer scalps vs Mochizuki's weak field). Quinn's heavy schedule is the only counterweight, insufficient to back a 3.20 dog into a player beating elites who showed no fatigue 2 days ago. No validated edge -> PASS.