TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Kraus vs C. Liu (Bastad on 2026-07-07) — the market is efficient, with C. Liu favoured at 1.58.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Kraus | C. Liu |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.9% | 30.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.2% | 44.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.4% | 46.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.1% | 45.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.7% | 57.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
S. Kraus leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 7, 2026 | Bastad | clay | S. Kraus | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Charaeva | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | D. Semenistaja | 1 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | J. Grabher | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | M. Bassols | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | E. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | Y. Putintseva | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | I. Oz | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| W | M. S. Popa | 2 - 0 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | S. Kraus | 2 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
All July 7, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used