TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Bandecchi vs M. Martinez Vaquero (Caldas da Rainha on 2026-09-15) — the market is efficient, with S. Bandecchi favoured at 1.07.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Bandecchi | M. Martinez Vaquero |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
87.6% | 12.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
97.8% | 2.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
62.9% | 37.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
82.8% | 17.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
85.4% | 14.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bandecchi | hard | 1677 | 104–67 | 171 |
| M. Martinez Vaquero | hard | 1363 | 28–39 | 67 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 28, 2026.
| L | A. Rus | 1 - 2 | Aug. 28, 2026 |
| W | V. Hruncakova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 26, 2026 |
| W | A. Charaeva | 0 - 2 | Aug. 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Smith | 2 - 0 | Aug. 15, 2026 |
| W | J. Burrage | 2 - 1 | Aug. 14, 2026 |
| L | A. Gasanova | 0 - 2 | Sept. 9, 2026 |
| L | A. Siskova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 11, 2026 |
| L | S. Van Ernst | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. Giza | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | V. Savinykh | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All Sept. 15, 2026 results & picks →