TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in S. Baez vs M. Bellucci (Montreal on 2026-08-03) — the market is efficient, with M. Bellucci favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | S. Baez | M. Bellucci |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.6% | 49.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
46.5% | 53.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
49.0% | 51.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.6% | 49.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Baez | clay | 1776 | 134–76 | 210 |
| M. Bellucci | hard | 1722 | 152–98 | 250 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
| L | Y. Hanfmann | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | M. Kecmanovic | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | J. De Jong | 0 - 2 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Bolt | 2 - 1 | June 14, 2026 |
All Aug. 3, 2026 results & picks →
S. Baez (A, 25, #65) vs M. Bellucci (B, 25, #80) — ATP Montreal R1, HARD. MODELS vs MARKET ELO/model 0.5058 A | ML 0.4645 A | Pinnacle no-vig 0.524 A (sharpest). Betfair ML: A 1.89 / B 2.08 (Baez the exchange FAVOURITE). Book odds_a 2.0 is a stale soft dog quote the exchange contradicts. Models straddle the market; no coherent disagreement large enough to stake. RECENT FORM (last 5) Baez (A): all 21 recent matches CLAY. 07-23 LOST 6-3 6-1 Hanfmann (blown out, DOM against), 07-22 W 7-6 2-6 6-4 Rinderknech (GRIND), 07-21 W 6-3 3-6 6-4 Kecmanovic (GRIND), 07-17 LOST 6-1 6-2 Rublev (blown out). Shape FADING even on his best surface — two recent DOM losses vs Strong/Elite. Bellucci (B): fast-court player. Halle grass TITLE 06-14 (beat Bublik 06-16). Last competitive 06-23 Eastbourne loss; only an exhibition since (06-25). ~40d competitive layoff. PATH / SHAPE / TRANSITION Baez: clay->hard TRANSITION (level-depressing, wider margins) + FADING. Match-active though (played to 07-23). Bellucci: grass->hard transition + heavy RUST (>21d competitive gap). His hard/clay body of work is weak; his edge is grass-specific. Both carry surface-transition risk in opposite directions — the read is genuinely murky, and the sharpest price already reflects the clay-ELO discount on Baez. FATIGUE Baez matches_14d 3, last 07-23 (10d ago) — rested, no extreme spot. Bellucci well-rested (rust, not fatigue). No haircut applies. Age 25 both, baseline. Fatigue is context, not an edge here. NARRATIVE No fresh Final letdown for either in window (Bellucci title 06-14 is >7d). Baez ELO likely clay-inflated (#65 rank, all-clay resume) — but Pinnacle already prices Baez as only a slight fav, so the hard-court discount is IN the market; cannot re-use it to create an edge. EDGES (commission-adjusted, exchange prices) Baez ML @1.89: -3.7%. Bellucci ML @2.08: +4.2% at the MOST optimistic ML read (0.535), +1.6% on a blend — below the 5% bar and contradicted by Pinnacle favouring Baez. Handicap Bell +0.5 @1.97 (cover 0.5002): -0.7%. Under 22.5 @2.0 (0.5168): +1.7%. Over 22.5 @1.94: -3.2%. Nothing clears its bar. MARKET CHOICE ml — no stakeable edge in any market. AH: B +0.5 @ 1.97 (not stakeable; -0.7% edge). GATES G1 edge-origin: FAIL — best numeric edge (Bellucci ML +4.2% on the optimistic ML read, ~+1.6% blended) is below the 5% exchange bar BEFORE any narrative; surface/rust are qualitative only. G2 consensus: stake-tier only (n/a — no bet). G3 fatal-risk: n/a (ML; no bet). VERDICT: PASS. Models straddle the market, the sharpest price (Pinnacle) favours Baez, no market clears the 5% edge bar. The clay-ELO/surface story is already priced by the exchange — no articulable edge left to stake.