TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Zarazua vs L. Fernandez (Toronto on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with L. Fernandez favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Zarazua | L. Fernandez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.1% | 61.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.2% | 56.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.8% | 42.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.4% | 56.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
35.4% | 64.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Zarazua | hard | 1720 | 110–84 | 194 |
| L. Fernandez | hard | 1804 | 119–82 | 201 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
L. Fernandez leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 10, 2020 | Lexington | hard | L. Fernandez | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 29, 2020 | Acapulco | hard | L. Fernandez | 2 - 0 |
| W | T. Korpatsch | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Vidmanova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Zakharova | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | T. Maria | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Linette | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | J. Tjen | 0 - 2 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | Xin. Wang | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Boulter | 1 - 2 | June 21, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used