TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Sakamoto vs P. Martinez (French Open on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with R. Sakamoto favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Sakamoto | P. Martinez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
46.3% | 53.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
40.1% | 59.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
78.4% | 21.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.9% | 45.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.9% | 41.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Sakamoto | hard | 1676 | 79–55 | 134 |
| P. Martinez | clay | 1631 | 123–103 | 226 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 2, 2026.
P. Martinez leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | French Open | clay | P. Martinez | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Legout | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | J. Leroux | 2 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | J. Faria | 3 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | A. Dougaz | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Matusevich | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | H. Dellien | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | H. Rocha | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | D. Jorda Sanchis | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used