R. Sakamoto vs A. Muller — Prediction & Analysis

US Open · ATP US Open - Semi-finals · Aug. 26, 2026 · 15:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Muller (moneyline) at 2.67 in R. Sakamoto vs A. Muller (US Open on 2026-08-26). Result: LOST.

Surface hard Odds R. Sakamoto 1.40 · A. Muller 2.67

Bot bet

A. Muller (moneyline) @ 2.67 · 0.75u
Result: LOST
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: R. Sakamoto · A. Muller · head-to-head record · US Open

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method R. Sakamoto A. Muller
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
53.3% 46.7%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
55.0% 45.0%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
69.0% 31.0%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
61.3% 38.7%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
65.6% 34.4%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
R. Sakamoto hard1714 88–60148
A. Muller hard1646 90–88178

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Sept. 8, 2026.

Head to head

R. Sakamoto leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 26, 2026US OpenhardR. Sakamoto2 - 0
May 13, 2026BordeauxclayR. Sakamoto2 - 1
March 19, 2025MiamihardA. Muller2 - 0

Recent form

R. Sakamoto

L S. Nam Ji 0 - 2 Sept. 8, 2026
L F. Tiafoe 0 - 3 Sept. 2, 2026
W A. Vukic 2 - 3 Aug. 31, 2026
W K. Nishikori 0 - 2 Aug. 28, 2026
W A. Muller 2 - 0 Aug. 26, 2026

A. Muller

L F. Balshaw 2 - 0 Sept. 3, 2026
W Z. Sesko 0 - 2 Sept. 2, 2026
L R. Sakamoto 2 - 0 Aug. 26, 2026
W L. Djere 0 - 2 Aug. 24, 2026
L C. Wong 0 - 2 Aug. 19, 2026

All Aug. 26, 2026 results & picks →

31 ATP & WTA matches analysed today. See today's predictions →