AI match preview for R. Noguchi vs T. Daniel (Matsuyama on 2026-11-13): models, form and the market read. No bot verdict is published for this match yet. R. Noguchi is the market favourite at 1.86.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Noguchi | T. Daniel |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.9% | 66.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
37.0% | 63.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.6% | 51.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.8% | 60.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
53.3% | 46.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Noguchi | hard | 1606 | 184–131 | 315 |
| T. Daniel | hard | 1590 | 144–109 | 253 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 13, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 13, 2026 | Matsuyama | hard | R. Noguchi | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 15, 2023 | ATP Tokyo | hard | T. Daniel | 2 - 0 |
| W | T. Daniel | 2 - 0 | Nov. 13, 2026 |
| W | Y. Zhou | 2 - 0 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | D. Michalski | 2 - 0 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | A. Kachmazov | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | K. Samrej | 2 - 1 | Oct. 20, 2026 |
| L | R. Noguchi | 2 - 0 | Nov. 13, 2026 |
| W | M. Schoenhaus | 0 - 2 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | M. Imamura | 0 - 2 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | T. Atmane | 2 - 0 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
All Nov. 13, 2026 results & picks →