TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Noguchi vs L. Nardi (Wimbledon on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with L. Nardi favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Noguchi | L. Nardi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.5% | 25.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
26.4% | 73.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.7% | 46.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
74.5% | 25.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
35.5% | 64.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Noguchi | hard | 1637 | 176–123 | 299 |
| L. Nardi | hard | 1661 | 105–91 | 196 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
L. Nardi leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | L. Nardi | 2 - 0 |
| March 3, 2023 | Pune Challenger Men | hard | L. Nardi | 2 - 0 |
| April 20, 2021 | M15 Antalya 16 | clay | R. Noguchi | 2 - 1 |
| L | C. Broom | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | K. Rice | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | B. Shick | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | M. Lajal | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | D. Suresh | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | A. Guerrieri | 0 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | O. Virtanen | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | R. Noguchi | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | R. Bertola | 1 - 2 | June 15, 2026 |
| W | G. Hussey | 2 - 0 | June 14, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used