TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Montgomery vs E. Kalieva (Wimbledon on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with R. Montgomery favoured at 1.19.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Montgomery | E. Kalieva |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
90.6% | 9.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
60.4% | 39.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
77.4% | 22.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
90.6% | 9.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
75.7% | 24.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Montgomery | hard | 1608 | 70–47 | 117 |
| E. Kalieva | hard | 1684 | 90–84 | 174 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 17, 2025.
R. Montgomery leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | R. Montgomery | 2 - 0 |
| April 7, 2026 | Madrid (Spain) | clay | E. Kalieva | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 19, 2024 | Puerto Vallarta Challenger Women | hard | R. Montgomery | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 26, 2023 | WTA Austin | hard | R. Montgomery | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 6, 2022 | W80 Rancho Santa Fe, CA | hard | E. Kalieva | 2 - 1 |
| L | J. Paolini | 2 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | M. Bassols | 1 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | E. Kalieva | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | C. Dolehide | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| W | B. Krejcikova | Walk Over | June 14, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | P. Stearns | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Z. Sonmez | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | K. Sebov | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | C. Dolehide | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used