TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Masarova vs M. L. Carle (French Open on 2026-05-19) — the market is efficient, with R. Masarova favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Masarova | M. L. Carle |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
64.7% | 35.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
79.7% | 20.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.6% | 42.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
67.3% | 32.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
78.3% | 21.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Masarova | hard | 1641 | 85–62 | 147 |
| M. L. Carle | clay | 1548 | 166–111 | 277 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
M. L. Carle leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. L. Carle | 2 - 1 |
| July 9, 2024 | Bastad Challenger Women | clay | M. L. Carle | 2 - 0 |
| April 7, 2024 | La Bisbal D'Emporda Challenger Women | clay | M. L. Carle | 2 - 1 |
| L | V. Ryser | 1 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | C. Monnet | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | F. Curmi | 0 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | J. Grabher | 1 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | J. Teichmann | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | E. Lene | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinina | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | J. Niemeier | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | J. Pieri | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | E. V. Eigelsbach | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
All May 19, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used