TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Jodar vs S. Mochizuki (Wimbledon on 2026-07-03) — the market is efficient, with R. Jodar favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Jodar | S. Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
45.4% | 54.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
69.1% | 30.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.2% | 37.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.6% | 28.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Jodar | hard | 1905 | 67–22 | 89 |
| S. Mochizuki | hard | 1558 | 118–110 | 228 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
S. Mochizuki leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 3, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | S. Mochizuki | 3 - 1 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Musetti | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Nishikori | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | D. Sweeny | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | H. Matsuoka | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | C. Broom | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Draxl | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Monday | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
All July 3, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════ R. JODAR vs S. MOCHIZUKI — Wimbledon 1/16-finals (grass, 2026-07-03) ═══════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS Market: Jodar 1.28 (71.6%) | Mochizuki 3.22 (28.4%) ELO A: 0.4541 ← rates Mochizuki the favorite ML A: 0.6909 ← agrees with market Ens A: 0.6218 → value pick B, edge +9.4% Split: ELO diverges hard from market; ML aligns with market. FORM — R. JODAR (A) 07-02 WON v Carreno-Busta (1734 Strong) 3-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 6-4 GRIND/5set 06-29 WON v Gill (1381 Weak) 6-3 6-3 7-5 Clay swing: FO QF (beat Carreno-Busta 1854 in 5, Michelsen 1674), Rome QF, Madrid QF (beat De Minaur 1872), Barcelona SF (beat Norrie 1867), Marrakech TITLE. Losses only to Zverev/Sinner/Darderi/Fils — elite tier. READ: genuine top-tier rising player, elite opponent quality, grass proven. FORM — S. MOCHIZUKI (B) 07-01 WON v Quinn (1668) 6-2 7-6 7-5 06-29 WON v Basing (1565) 6-3 6-0 6-0 DOM 06-25 WON "Wimbledon - Final" v Tabur (1644) 5set (8d ago) + SF/QF wins over Onclin/Sachko. Nottingham QF, Hertogenbosch SF. READ: hot on grass but field tier markedly lower (mostly <1700 opp). Losses to Bertola x2, Neumayer, Fearnley, Shimabukuro. FATIGUE Jodar: 2 matches / 6 sets / 302min in 14d — but 5-setter YESTERDAY. Mochizuki: 6 matches / 18 sets / 669min in 14d, B2B=1 — heavy load. Court-time diff 367min (>60) → heavier side (Mochizuki) disadvantaged. Net: cumulative load favors Jodar; Jodar's 1-day-old 5-setter partly offsets. NARRATIVE Let-down: Mochizuki's "Final" win was 8d ago (>7d) → None; kept winning since. Venue: both deep in Wimbledon draw, no differentiator. VERDICT — PASS The +9.4% "value" on Mochizuki is manufactured entirely by ELO (0.4541), which lags a fast-rising Jodar. ML and market agree Jodar is a strong, correctly-priced favorite. Live form + opponent-quality gap (elite vs sub-1700 field) validate the market, not the ELO. No real edge on B; no value on a 1.28 favorite the ensemble itself rates below market on A. Bot's bet-B 2.5u overrides the ELO error — declined. ═══════════════════════════════════════════