TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Jodar vs C. Moutet (Montreal on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with R. Jodar favoured at 1.26.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Jodar | C. Moutet |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.4% | 30.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
66.9% | 33.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
81.5% | 18.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
73.2% | 26.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
74.1% | 25.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Musetti | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Nishikori | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | M. Fucsovics | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 3 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 3 | July 16, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used