TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Collignon vs V. Vacherot (Gstaad on 2026-07-17) — the market is efficient, with R. Collignon favoured at 1.53.
═══ R. Collignon vs V. Vacherot — Gstaad QF (clay) ═══
MODELS vs MARKET
Market: Collignon 1.53 (62.0%) | Vacherot 2.50 (40.0%)
ELO: 58.4% A | ML: 56.5% A | Blend: 59.0% A
Value pick: B (+3.1% edge, thin). Both models shade the dog, but only mildly.
RECENT FORM
Collignon (last 5):
07-15 Gstaad 1/8 W vs Sonego (1628, Avg) 7-6 7-6 GRIND (2 TBs)
07-13 Gstaad 1/16 W vs Skatov (1622, Avg) 3-6 7-6 6-4 GRIND
06-30 Wimbledon L vs Fils (1695, Strong) 5-7 1-6 3-6
06-22 Eastbourne L vs Cerundolo (1307, Weak) 4-6 6-4 6-7 GRIND loss
06-19 Halle QF L vs Zverev (1860, Elite) 7(12)-6 7(7)-6 GRIND loss
Deep sample: Halle TITLE 33d ago (grass), beat Shelton (1796) at RG, Bordeaux final.
Real level vs Strong/Elite, but current wins are all tiebreak grinders vs Avg opposition.
Vacherot (ALL 90d history = 3 matches):
07-15 Gstaad 1/8 W vs Hanfmann (1805, Strong) 6-4 3-6 4-6 (3-setter)
05-26 French Open W vs Faurel (1501, Avg) 4 sets incl TB GRIND
04-24 Madrid L vs Nava (1719, Strong)
Hanfmann win is legit, but 3 matches in ~12 weeks = major rust/fitness unknown.
FATIGUE
Collignon: 2 matches/7d, 6 sets, 322 court minutes, last played 07-15.
Vacherot: 1 match/7d, 3 sets, 166 court minutes, last played 07-15.
Diff 156 min > 60 → Collignon disadvantaged. Genuine edge to B on freshness.
NARRATIVE
Let-down: Halle Final won 33d ago → None (outside window).
Venue: Collignon 2-0 at Gstaad this week; Vacherot 1-0. Neutral-to-A.
Title recency: TITLE: Halle 33d ago (grass) — Collignon carrying winner's form.
VERDICT — PASS
Both models disagree with the market in the same direction (B), and fatigue
validates it: Collignon has 4 tiebreaks and 322 minutes in his legs this week.
But the edge is thin (~1-3% on blended probs, <5% at best on ML) and the
qualitative case is contaminated: Vacherot's 41% model prob rests on an ELO
frozen by inactivity — 3 matches since April is a fitness question the market
is right to price in. Collignon's underlying level (Halle title, Shelton scalp,
Bordeaux final) is far better documented than Vacherot's. Thin model edge +
mixed qualitative read = no bet. No alt markets priced.