TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Carballes Baena vs C. Sanchez Jover (Bastad on 2026-07-12) — the market is efficient, with R. Carballes Baena favoured at 1.18.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Carballes Baena | C. Sanchez Jover |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
68.4% | 31.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.4% | 52.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
40.5% | 59.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
59.7% | 40.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
79.2% | 20.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Carballes Baena | clay | 1645 | 139–85 | 224 |
| C. Sanchez Jover | clay | 1563 | 241–147 | 388 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
C. Sanchez Jover leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 12, 2026 | Bastad | clay | C. Sanchez Jover | 1 - 0 |
| L | O. Wallin | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Houkes | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Huesler | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Sanchez Jover | 0 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | V. Aboian | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Daniel | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| W | R. Carballes Baena | 0 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | F. Balshaw | 2 - 0 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | M. Alcala Gurri | 2 - 1 | June 18, 2026 |
All July 12, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used