TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Brancaccio vs A. Gea (Wimbledon on 2026-06-22) — the market is efficient, with A. Gea favoured at 1.25.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Brancaccio | A. Gea |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.3% | 56.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
28.7% | 71.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
32.3% | 67.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
25.0% | 75.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Brancaccio | clay | 1548 | 173–132 | 305 |
| A. Gea | clay | 1586 | 72–67 | 139 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
A. Gea leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 22, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Gea | 2 - 0 |
| W | Z. Kolar | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | H. Mayot | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | M. Dodig | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | A. Pellegrino | 1 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | C. Wong | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | F. Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
All June 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used