TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Bautista-Agut vs J. Fonseca (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with J. Fonseca favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Bautista-Agut | J. Fonseca |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
55.6% | 44.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
29.2% | 70.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.4% | 57.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
18.8% | 81.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Bautista-Agut | hard | 1665 | 76–77 | 153 |
| J. Fonseca | hard | 1954 | 61–22 | 83 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 20, 2026.
J. Fonseca leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 29, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | J. Fonseca | 3 - 0 |
| L | J. Fonseca | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | June 14, 2026 |
| W | B. Sanchez Martinez | 0 - 2 | June 13, 2026 |
| L | M. Giron | 0 - 2 | June 9, 2026 |
| W | C. Moutet | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | N. Kyrgios | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | R. Safiullin | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | J. De Jong | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
The mathematical model suggests value on RBA, but this is driven almost entirely by a lagging ELO rating that fails to reflect his rapid decline at age 38. Qualitative analysis of his recent matches shows alarming losses to low-ranked opponents (ELO <1600), suggesting his true win probability against a rising star like Fonseca is significantly lower than the model's 39% or even the ML's 29%. While Fonseca is the likely winner, the 1.16 odds offer no value given his own grass inexperience, leading to a pass.