TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Marcinko vs S. Kenin (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with P. Marcinko favoured at 1.72.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Marcinko | S. Kenin |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
57.3% | 42.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
60.9% | 39.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
56.5% | 43.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
57.3% | 42.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
55.0% | 45.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Marcinko | clay | 1727 | 89–46 | 135 |
| S. Kenin | hard | 1633 | 87–86 | 173 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 17, 2026.
S. Kenin leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | S. Kenin | 2 - 0 |
| L | T. Zidansek | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | E. Avanesyan | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | N. Podoroska | 1 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | C. Burel | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | S. Kenin | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | L. Stefanini | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | A. Anisimova | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | P. Marcinko | 0 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | D. Snigur | 0 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
P. Marcinko (A) vs S. Kenin (B) — Wimbledon R1 (1/64), grass, 2026-06-30 MODELS: ELO 0.573 | ML 0.609 | blend 0.573 | market implied 0.550 (A @1.72 / B @2.10). Value pick A, edge +2.3% — thin. Bot: pass. FORM A (Marcinko, last 14d): W McNally(1751 GRIND), W Birrell(1636 DOM 6-1 6-4), W Ruzic(1670 GRIND), L Final Snigur(1666 4-6 2-6), W Waltert(1440 GRIND). LAST MATCH Jun26 RETIRED vs Keys(1854 Elite) trailing 1-6. Reached two grass finals (Berlin, Eastbourne) — both lost. FORM B (Kenin, last 14d): L Snigur(1643 3-6 1-6 blowout), L Golubic(1649 3set), L Final Golubic(1623), W Jacquemot(1607 6-4 6-4). Reached Nottingham final (lost). Poor recent form, 3 of last 4 lost. FATIGUE: A 8 matches/14d, 24 sets, 615 court-min, back-to-back 4d, RETIRED 4d ago — severe. B 4 matches/14d, 263 court-min, 10d rest. Diff 352min >60 → Marcinko heavily disadvantaged. Strong fatigue edge to Kenin. NARRATIVE: A let-down — last exact Final (Eastbourne) lost 9d ago, outside window. No grass title. Wimbledon venue history: none (neutral). Retirement mid-match 4d ago is the dominant unknown — possible injury. VERDICT: PASS. Model/market roughly aligned, edge only 2.3%. Fatigue + recent retirement fades favorite Marcinko, but Kenin's weak form and below-market model prob give no clean underdog value. No actionable edge either side.