TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Kudermetova vs L. Samsonova (Wimbledon on 2026-06-29) — the market is efficient, with L. Samsonova favoured at 1.53.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Kudermetova | L. Samsonova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
38.7% | 61.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
36.1% | 63.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.1% | 42.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.7% | 61.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
38.0% | 62.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kudermetova | hard | 1665 | 127–77 | 204 |
| L. Samsonova | hard | 1750 | 30–32 | 62 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | L. Samsonova | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 1, 2025 | Brisbane | hard | P. Kudermetova | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Alexander | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Bucsa | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | V. Lepchenko | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | J. Tjen | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Keys | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
All June 29, 2026 results & picks →
Kudermetova (A) vs Samsonova (B) — Wimbledon 1/64, grass, 2026-06-30 MODELS: ELO A 0.387 | ML A 0.361 | model A 0.387 | S/R A 0.571. All three lean B (~61%). MARKET: A 2.50 (impl 0.380) / B 1.53 (impl 0.620). value_pick A, edge +0.007 (negligible). ELO & ML both AGREE with market on B → efficient line. FORM A (Kudermetova): hot grass streak — won 'Wimbledon' title 5d ago (06-25 d.Charaeva 1645, 4-6 6-4 6-1), SF DOM d.Ngounoue 1690 (6-1 6-2), QF GRIND d.Ponchet 1525. Also won London grass title 06-07. BUT body of recent work is qualifier-level fields (Oeiras/Istanbul quali); grass scalps are Avg-to-Strong opponents only. FORM B (Samsonova): mixed grass — beat Siniakova 1774 (6-3 7-5) on grass 06-21, lost to Svitolina 1816 (won set 1) and Mertens 1744. Higher class of opposition, bigger grass serve pedigree. FATIGUE: A court 212min / 3 matches 14d / back-to-back 2 / 5d rest. B court 221min / 3 matches 14d / 7d rest. Diff <30min, matches diff 0 → Roughly equal (B slightly fresher). NARRATIVE: Let-down WEAK — A won a Final 5d ago (5-7d window). Venue: A 3-0 at this 'Wimbledon' event but momentum amplifies, doesn't create, edge. Samsonova's quality wins (Siniakova) validate the favorite read. VERDICT: Full model + market consensus on B, with the underdog edge a trivial +0.7%. Qualitative read (Samsonova's superior grass opposition quality vs A's soft fields) supports the favorite, not the dog. No validated edge → PASS.