TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Kudermetova vs J. Ponchet (Wimbledon on 2026-06-23) — the market is efficient, with P. Kudermetova favoured at 1.35.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Kudermetova | J. Ponchet |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.7% | 45.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
63.9% | 36.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.7% | 37.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
69.6% | 30.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kudermetova | hard | 1665 | 127–77 | 204 |
| J. Ponchet | hard | 1520 | 146–111 | 257 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
P. Kudermetova leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 23, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | P. Kudermetova | 2 - 1 |
| April 8, 2026 | Madrid (Spain) | clay | P. Kudermetova | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Alexander | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Bucsa | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | V. Lepchenko | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | P. Kudermetova | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | L. Fruhvirtova | 2 - 0 | May 20, 2026 |
| W | P. Hon | 2 - 0 | May 19, 2026 |
| L | A. Lazaro Garcia | 0 - 2 | May 9, 2026 |
| W | M. Chwalinska | 1 - 2 | May 8, 2026 |
All June 23, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used