TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Kudermetova vs C. Ngounoue (Wimbledon on 2026-06-24) — the market is efficient, with P. Kudermetova favoured at 1.62.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Kudermetova | C. Ngounoue |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
36.4% | 63.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
64.0% | 36.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.2% | 49.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
57.6% | 42.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kudermetova | hard | 1665 | 127–77 | 204 |
| C. Ngounoue | hard | 1528 | 87–55 | 142 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
P. Kudermetova leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 24, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | P. Kudermetova | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Korneeva | 1 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Alexander | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | E. Svitolina | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Bucsa | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | V. Lepchenko | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | V. Lepchenko | 1 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | L. Ma | 1 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | L. Ma | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Yamalapalli | 0 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | P. Kudermetova | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
All June 24, 2026 results & picks →
The consensus model predicts a 57.6% win probability for Kudermetova, which matches the market's devigged price precisely, resulting in a 0.0% mathematical edge. While the ML model (64.0%) and market trend analysis (market lagging results) suggest Kudermetova is the likely winner, the significant Elo outlier (36.4%) and the high bookmaker margin (7.2%) erase any potential value. Without a mathematical discrepancy to exploit, this is a strict pass.