TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Badosa vs V. Lepchenko (Bastad on 2026-07-09) — the market is efficient, with P. Badosa favoured at 1.10.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Badosa | V. Lepchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
68.4% | 31.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
71.4% | 28.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.7% | 46.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
70.7% | 29.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
85.5% | 14.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Badosa | hard | 1824 | 78–54 | 132 |
| V. Lepchenko | hard | 1587 | 91–76 | 167 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 21, 2026.
P. Badosa leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 9, 2026 | Bastad | clay | P. Badosa | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 1 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Udvardy | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Kawa | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 1 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | T. Zidansek | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | E. Jones | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | P. Kudermetova | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | C. Ngounoue | 1 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | E. Avanesyan | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | A. Petkovic | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
All July 9, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used