TennisEdge's AI bot is backing O. Virtanen (moneyline) at 5.40 in O. Virtanen vs A. Rublev (US Open on 2026-08-31). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | O. Virtanen | A. Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
30.4% | 69.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
40.5% | 59.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
33.1% | 66.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
30.5% | 69.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
20.1% | 79.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Virtanen | hard | 1714 | 132–85 | 217 |
| A. Rublev | hard | 1799 | 170–100 | 270 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 12, 2026.
A. Rublev leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 31, 2026 | US Open | hard | A. Rublev | 3 - 2 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 0 - 2 | Nov. 12, 2026 |
| W | D. Prizmic | 2 - 1 | Nov. 10, 2026 |
| L | L. Djere | 2 - 1 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | V. Sachko | 0 - 2 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | M. Kouame | 2 - 0 | Oct. 31, 2026 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 1 - 2 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | T. Paul | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 1 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
| L | R. Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | Oct. 9, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 | Oct. 4, 2026 |
All Aug. 31, 2026 results & picks →