O. Virtanen vs A. Rublev — Prediction & Analysis

US Open · · Aug. 31, 2026 · 15:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing O. Virtanen (moneyline) at 5.40 in O. Virtanen vs A. Rublev (US Open on 2026-08-31). Result: LOST.

Surface hard Odds O. Virtanen 4.57 · A. Rublev 1.15

Bot bet

O. Virtanen (moneyline) @ 5.40 · 0.5u
Result: LOST
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: O. Virtanen · A. Rublev · head-to-head record · US Open

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method O. Virtanen A. Rublev
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
30.4% 69.6%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
40.5% 59.5%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
33.1% 66.9%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
30.5% 69.5%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
20.1% 79.9%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
O. Virtanen hard1701 125–81206
A. Rublev hard1827 165–94259

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 31, 2026.

Head to head

A. Rublev leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 31, 2026US OpenhardA. Rublev3 - 2

Recent form

O. Virtanen

L A. Rublev 2 - 3 Aug. 31, 2026
L G. Dimitrov Walk Over Aug. 27, 2026
W J. Pinnington Jones 2 - 1 Aug. 26, 2026
W U. Blanchet 2 - 0 Aug. 24, 2026
L M. Echargui 0 - 2 Aug. 19, 2026

A. Rublev

L D. Merida Aguilar 3 - 1 Sept. 2, 2026
W O. Virtanen 2 - 3 Aug. 31, 2026
L N. Borges 0 - 2 Aug. 18, 2026
W P. Carreno-Busta 2 - 0 Aug. 16, 2026
L J. Shang 2 - 1 Aug. 4, 2026

All Aug. 31, 2026 results & picks →

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